And this is going to cost the taxpayers how much?


UPDATE 1

One of things critics of the 2nd Inter-Korean summit have been bringing up is that Kim Jong-il promised Kim Dae-jung during the 1st Inter-Korean summit that he would visit Seoul for the 2nd meeting. The excuse that Kim Jong-il is using is that "security concerns" are preventing him from traveling to Seoul. Kim likes traveling by train when he leaves the country and the South Korean government expects people to believe that Kim Jong-il can’t take his train on the new train track laid through the DMZ that cost the South Korean taxpayer $80 million bucks to do one test run on, to come to Seoul?

In response to criticism about a secret payoff the South Korean government is claiming there was no secret pay off:

Kim Man-bok denied that there was any cash attached to the deal. Such talk, he said, is “groundless and absurd.” He said the summit was worked out in a “transparent manner.”

If the Roh administration has not provided any secret bribe than that means the likelihood of Roh signing an agreement which makes South Korea have to give unconditional aid to North Korea for a fixed number of years is more likely. I began digging through my archives a bit more and found what Roh administration may have planned:

The government provides rice and fertilizer to the North on humanitarian grounds. But that is not enough to address the fundamental poverty there, and a different approach is needed. Lee appears to be thinking of comprehensive economic aid so Pyongyang can overcome poverty. Experts speculate that the government is thinking about a large-scale economic package similar to the Marshall Plan that revived Europe after World War II. ROK Marshall Plan?

(…)

On Tuesday, the unification minister said, "We need to offer aid to North Korea from a more productive and longer perspective beyond what is currently being done. We need to restate our concept of aiding the North so that it can continue under the next administration." Kim Tae-hyo, a political scientist at Sungkyunkwan University, says "it sounds as if the government wants to help North Korea in infrastructure or logistics systems, beyond cooperative projects like package tours to Mt. Kumgang or the Kaesong Industrial Complex. It seems to have concluded that it must do it in a way so the next government can’t change the policy on aid to the North it has set."

I think it is now pretty clear that this is what the Roh administration has in store, a massive unconditional aid package that when the conservatives come into power, they cannot over turn. The fundamental problem with poverty in North Korea that such a massive aid package won’t fix is that the cause of poverty in the country, the North Korean regime! You can give them fertilizer and food, you can pave all the roads in North Korea, but poverty will remain because it is in the regime’s interest to keep the people poor and the South Korean government knows it and does not care.


I think it is now pretty clear that this is what the Roh administration has in store, a massive unconditional aid package that when the conservatives come into power, they cannot over turn. The fundamental problem with poverty in North Korea that such a massive aid package won’t fix is that the cause of poverty in the country, the North Korean regime! You can give them fertilizer and food, you can pave all the roads in North Korea, but poverty will remain because it is in the regime’s interest to keep the people poor and the South Korean government knows it and does not care.

It is all about The Photo Op and maintaining the "Myth of Progress". Sadly I believe most people in South Korea want to believe the myth is true, which means people like this 66 year old grandmother will be left fighting to expose what the regime really is.

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I come home from work today and find out that peace in our time is at hand, with the announcement of a second Inter-Korean summit. At least that is what would think after reading this South Korean government’s press release:

President Roh Moo-hyun will visit Pyongyang Aug. 28-30 to hold a summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, Roh’s office Cheong Wa Dae said in a statement Wednesday.

"The two Koreas have agreed to hold a summit in Pyongyang Aug. 28-30. For the summit, Roh will remain in the North Korean capital for three days," said the statement.

"The second inter-Korean summit is expected to contribute to peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula. The talks will also provide momentum to settle the North Korean nuclear problem," it said.


Hmmmm, "peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula"? I don’t know about the peace portion, but I guarantee there will be some prosperity for at least one person, Kim Jong-il. The last inter-Korean summit that Kim Dae-jung lined up in 2000 that earned him the Noble Peace Prize was only agreed upon after $500 million dollars was secretly sent to North Korea. The going rate for this meeting had to be much more expensive considering the lame duck status of President Roh Moo-hyun. Whatever the bribe is this time, it won’t be found out after the election, but as usual it will be the Korean taxpayer that will lose out.

President Roh has already put down some pretty good down payments on the inter-Korean summit bribe. Anyone remember the suitcase stuffed with $400,000 in cash or the hundreds of tons of supposed humanitarian aid, not to mention all the oil the North Koreans received from the denuclearization agreement, which will never be up held. Plus Kim Jong-il is earning millions more from his slave labor camp at Kaesong. Also don’t forget the one billion dollars in aid sent to North Korea this year along with the $80 million to Kim Jong-il to allow the South Koreans to test drive one train across the DMZ in what I like to call the World’s Most Expensive Train Ride. Remember all the unification talk and feel good stories about riding trains from Seoul to Paris via North Korea after that train ride? Well what has that train ride accomplished since then? Well nothing, and that is what this summit is going to accomplish for the people of South Korea.

Roh thinks he is going to get some kind of legacy over this and the leftist politicians think this summit will help them in the presidential election this year. They will end up losers in all of this and the only winner of this summit will be Kim Jong-il who has been banking in the money from all the South Korean extortion payments and may get what my biggest fear of all is, some kind of agreement for unconditional aid for a set number of years that a future conservative president cannot over turn. Why would Roh Moo-hyun care about the loss of Korean tax payers dollars when he has scored the World’s Most Expensive Photo Op.

If President Roh had any ounce of decency and moral courage in him he would demand that Kim Jong-il return the 3,790 South Korean citizens kidnapped by North Korea over the years along with accounting for the many thousands more of Korean War POWs. If he was able to win the release of these people from the gulag that is North Korea, than Roh would be worthy of some legacy, but I fully expect that winning the freedom for these South Korean citizens will be left to 66 year old grandmas to do. But, hey "peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula" is on its way. The only question remaining is if Barack Obama can go with President Roh or not.

Actually predicting that a second inter-Korean summit was going to happen was quite easy and predicting what is going to come out of it is even easier. Expect Kim Jong-il to only make vague promises and declarations with no substance. President Roh understands Kim Jong-il won’t denuclearize or make any major concessions, but that isn’t what a second inter-Korean summit is about. It is all about the photo-op and keeping the myth of progress alive.

Personally I think a photo of President Roh toasting Kim Jong-il, ala Madeline Albright, will be a fitting legacy for Roh.
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A Higher Level

Update 4: Bruce Klinger in an article entitled, “Seoul’s Impetuous Summit Initiative” (H/T Paul) gives some details on the mechanics of the deal for the second North-South summit, and speculates on the likelihood of another massive cash infusion to pay for the honor of meeting Kim Jong-il:

It is unlikely that Seoul made a secret cash payment to induce Pyongyang to the meeting, given the scrutiny that followed revelations that the Kim Dae-Jung administration paid at least $500 million to secure the 2000 summit. But Kim Jong-Il does not cooperate for free; thus the Roh Moo Hyun administration probably offered some inducement, such as new developmental aid or expansion of existing South-North economic projects.

Be sure to read the rest of the story.

Update 3: After reading a few more reports and considering the information, it’s likely that North Korea agreeing to the August summit is a precursor to once again delaying or otherwise reneging the 13 February agreement (DOC) to denuclearize. This falls in the pattern of appearing to engage – by taking actions that could have been taken at any prior time and would have indicated actual sincerity if done during Six-Party Talks and related negotiations – only to break off said engagement soon thereafter. The regime feigned many such positive moves only to backtrack later during negotiations leading to the 1994 Agreed Framework.

Now that North Korea has agreed to meet with Roh in August, it would not be surprising if North Korea made the summit conditional on suspending Ulchi Focus Lens, a joint U.S.-ROK exercise that the northern regime has railed against for years, which is scheduled to occur this August.

Update 2: A quote from presidential chief secretary for security affairs Baek Jong-chun:

“The second inter-Korean summit will serve as a stepping stone for the establishment of a peace framework on the Korean Peninsula through frank discussions on the issue by the two leaders… At the summit, the two leaders will also discuss new initiatives to raise inter-Korean economic ties and exchanges in terms of both quality and quantity… With the second summit, a foundation for regular inter Korean summits should be established…”

A, “a stepping stone for the establishment of a peace framework on the Korean Peninsula”? This bit of hollow rhetoric raises more questions than answers for anyone paying attention to the peninsula for the last couple of decades. For example, wasn’t the last inter-Korea summit, seven years ago, supposed to do that? What about the 1994 Agreed Framework and all the related inter-Korea nuclear deals that were to lead to a “peace framework”? What about the last eight plus years of “Sunshine Policy” with no reciprocal action on the part of the Kim Jong-il regime? And despite all of that, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons.

Planning for this event must have been going on between the two governments for awhile, so yesterday’s exchange of fire along the DMZ may or may not have been directed from Pyongyang.

The opposition Grand National Party has raised some very valid concerns that Roh is pulling a election year stunt (particularly in light of Roh’s demonstrated disdain for election laws):

“We are deeply concerned that the government is pushing ahead with a second inter-Korean summit through behind-the-scenes procedures and just a few months ahead of the [December] presidential election. . . The question is whether holding a summit between the two Koreas now is appropriate. This inter-Korean summit is highly likely to be a trick to prevent the opposition from taking power by creating a political stir before the election.”

Original post: A “higher level” of crack use, perhaps:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun will hold a summit later this month aimed at raising relations between the two nations “to a higher level,” according to a joint statement released by their respective governments on Wednesday.

The two Koreas’ second-ever summit is set to take place on August 28-30 in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang.

The summit is the second in seven years between the two nations, since Kim met then-South Korean President Kim Dae-jung in June 2000. (emphasis added)

Let’s take a moment to remember that in 2000 Kim Dae-jung arranged for Kim Jong-il to receive ~$500,000,000 (yes, half a billion dollars) to meet with him. What has Roh promised Kim for this summit? Also, in 2000 Kim Jong-il vowed to come to Seoul for a summit, something that Kim Dae-jung is still no doubt hoping for.



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This is a small update, with a whole lot more to follow.